George W Bush

Former

43^rd  President

Of

United States of America

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Profile

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·                 The Iraq War troop surge of 2007, commonly known as the troop surge, or simply the surge, refers to the George W. Bush administration’s 2007 increase in the number of U.S. military combat troops in Iraq in order to provide security to Baghdad and Al Anbar Governorate.^[5]

·                 The surge was developed under the working title “The New Way Forward” and was announced in January 2007 by Bush during a television speech.^[6][7]

·                 Bush ordered the deployment of more than 20,000 soldiers into Iraq (five additional brigades), and sent the majority of them into Baghdad.^[6]

·                 He also extended the tour of most of the Army troops in country and some of the Marines already in Anbar.^[6]

·                 The President described the overall objective as establishing a “unified, democratic federal Iraq that can govern itself, defend itself, and sustain itself, and is an ally in the War on Terror.”^[7]

·                 The major element of the strategy was a change in focus for the U.S. military “to help Iraqis clear and secure neighbourhoods, to help them protect the local population, and to help ensure that the Iraqi forces left behind are capable of providing the security”.^[6]

·                 The President stated that the surge would then provide the time and conditions conducive to reconciliation between communities.^[7]

·                 Initiated against strong domestic opposition and after the Republican defeat in the 2006 midterm elections, the surge was considered to be extremely difficult politically.

·                 One White House staffer explained the political rationale succinctly: “If you’re going to be a bear, be a grizzly.”^[8] In retrospect, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and other critics of the surge have argued that it was successful.^[9][10]

Terminology

·                 The phrases “New Way Forward”,^[11][12] “The New Way Forward” and “A new way forward in Iraq”^[13] were widely used by White House Press Secretary Tony Snow^[14] and the news media prior to the President’s speech on January 10, 2007, announcing the policy change. The US press also refers to the increase as a “surge” or “Iraq troop surge”. Following the speech, some Democrats began using the term “escalation” rather than “surge”,^[15] though others in the party used the terms interchangeably.^[16]

Background

·                 December 2007 car bombing in Baghdad

DEMAND

2006 Election

·                 Polls showed that after the 2006 general election, “A substantial majority of Americans expect Democrats to reduce or end American military involvement in Iraq if they [won] control of Congress”.^[17]

·                 This view of the election as a referendum on the war was endorsed by Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi who in the final days of the campaign said, “This election is about Iraq.

·                 If indeed it turns out the way that people expect it to turn out, the American people will have spoken, and they will have rejected the course of action the president is on.”^[18]

·                 The news media viewed the Democratic victory in both houses of the US Congress as “punishing President George W. Bush and his Republicans over ethics scandals in Washington and a failing war in Iraq.”^[19]

Democratic Position

·                 After her party’s victory then House Speaker-elect Pelosi (who would a month later make clear her disdain for the “surge proposal”^[20]) wrote an article entitled “Bringing the War to an End is my Highest Priority as Speaker”.

·                 The article explained that after visiting wounded Iraq War veterans at the Bethesda Naval Medical Center, “I left there more committed than ever to bringing the war to an end.

·                 I told my colleagues yesterday that the biggest ethical issue facing our country for the past three and a half years is the war in Iraq. …

·                 When the House reconvenes on January 4, 2007, Democrats will take power and I will take the gavel knowing the responsibility we have to you and to the country.

·                 The new Democratic Congress will live up to the highest ethical standard… [we] are prepared to lead and ready to govern. We will honour the trust of the American people; we will not disappoint.”^[21]

Republican Position

·                 Following the 2006 United States midterm elections in which Republicans lost control of the House and Senate,

·                 The Heritage Foundation hosted a conference chaired by Republican whip Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), titled, “The New Way Forward:

·                 Refocusing the Conservative Agenda” on November 9, 2006, to analyse “setbacks” from the election results. Blunt bemoaned the fact Republicans had “become the defenders rather than the challengers of business as usual.”^[22]

DEVELOPMENT OF THE STRATEGY

Senturion Forecasts

·                 In January 2005, the National Defense University applied its “Senturion” predictive analysis software to the Iraqi elections in order to determine which factions would support the elections, which would oppose them, and which would remain neutral.

Iraq Study Group Report

·                 On December 6, 2006, the Iraq Study Group presented their report, which recommended both external and internal approaches for achieving positive progress in Iraq.

·                 Among other approaches, the report suggested that the “United States should significantly increase the number of U.S. military personnel, including combat troops, imbedded in and supporting Iraqi Army units.”^[25]

·                 However, this language is not specifically included in any of the report’s 79 recommendations.

·                 Later in the day White House spokesman Tony Snow told CNN‘s Larry King that Bush was comparing recommendations “by the Iraq Study Group with pending studies by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and National Security Council.”^[26]

·                 Once the review was finished, Snow believed that the President would be able to “announce a new way forward” in Iraq by the end of the year.^[26]

State Department

·                 On December 11, 2006, Bush met with Senior State Department advisers (including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice) “on how to shape U.S. policy in Iraq as part of Bush’s mission to come up with a new s

Experts

·                 Later on December 11, 2006, Bush met “with a group of Iraqi experts, including historians and former generals, in the Oval Office.”^[27]

·                 The CIA‘s top counterinsurgency experts conducted an assessment that found the presence of US forces was key to stability.

Joint Chiefs

·                 Bush makes a statement to reporters on the war in Iraq, following a meeting with senior US military leaders at the Pentagon, May 2007.

·                 On December 13, 2006, Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney met with the members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff for “more than an hour,” discussing different military options for Iraq.

Chiarelli Plan

·                 General George William Casey Jr., the top US commander in Iraq, was reported to be “reviewing a plan to redefine the American military mission there: U.S. troops would be pulled out of Iraqi cities and consolidated at a handful of U.S. bases while day-to-day combat duty would be turned over to the Iraqi army.”

·                 The Chiefs expressed “concern about the erosion of the U.S. military’s ability to deal with other crises around the world because of the heavy commitment in Iraq and the stress on troops and equipment”. They told Bush that there was “significantly increased risk to readiness in the event of a new emergency”.^[30]

December 14 Comments

·                 On December 14, 2006, when pressed by reporters for more information on his thinking on the matter Bush said “I am listening to a lot of advice to develop a strategy to help you succeed, a lot of consultations. I will be delivering my plans after a long deliberation, after steady deliberation. I’m not going to be rushed into making a decision.”

American Enterprise Institute Surge Support

·                 This American Enterprise Institute surge study referenced is listed as having been posted December 14, and was called the “real Iraq Study Group report” by its author.^[32]

PRESENTATION

Pre – Speech Expectations

·                 Bush was expected to announce a “surge” in forces that some sources say could be up to 20,000 troops. According to Reuters, “While Bush is to announce a complete overhaul of his Iraq policy, including economic and political components, the possibility of a troop increase has gained the most attention.

Pre – Buttals

·                 Jon Soltz speaking at the Democratic press conference.

·                 Just before the 110th Congress convened on January 4 some Democrats said they planned to call Defense Secretary Robert Gates before the Senate Armed Services Committee “to explain, if not try to defend, the president’s plan.”^[37]

Plan announcement

·                 President George W. Bush announces the new strategy on Iraq from the White House Library, January 10, 2007.

·                 In a nationally televised address on January 10, Bush stated “America will change our strategy to help the Iraqis carry out their campaign to put down sectarian violence and bring security to the people of Baghdad. This will require increasing American force levels. So I’ve committed more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq. The vast majority of them – five brigades – will be deployed to Baghdad”.^[6]

·                 On the same day of the speech, ABC News announced that ninety advance troops from the 82nd Airborne Division had already arrived in Baghdad.

2007 State of the Union Address

·                 Main article: 2007 State of the Union Address

·                 In advance of the State of the Union address, Bush gave several promotional speeches to Belo television and Sinclair television, suggesting that the surge “should be given a chance” and challenged critical lawmakers to offer an alternative.^[39]

·                 On the night of Tuesday, January 23, the president had this to say on the troop increase in Iraq, outlining its purpose in supporting the Iraqi government’s maintenance of control:

Response

·                 The substance of the debate that followed the speech reflected “widespread disagreement with the Bush administration over its proposed solution, and growing scepticism that the United States made the right decision in going to war in the first place”.^[40]

Supporters

·                 The New York Times reported that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani backed Bush on the troop increase.^[41] McCain did the same, saying on January 12 that “The presence of additional coalition forces would allow the Iraqi government to do what it cannot accomplish today on its own: impose its rule throughout the country.”^[41]

Opponents

·                 Immediately following Bush’s January 10 speech announcing the plan, Democratic politicians, including Ted Kennedy, Harry Reid and Dennis Kucinich,^[42] called on Congress to reject the surge.^[43]

·                 On January 18, the Los Angeles Times released a Bloomberg poll that said 60 percent of those polled opposed the troop surge, 51 percent wanted Congress to try to block Bush from sending more soldiers, and 65 percent disapproved of the president’s handling of the war.

·                 Meanwhile, a Fox News Poll reported that 59 percent to 36 percent, Americans opposed sending more US troops to Iraq.^[45]

·                 On January 16, Nebraska Republican Chuck Hagel, Delaware Democrat Joe Biden (Senate Foreign Relations Committee chair), and Michigan Democrat Carl Levin (Armed Services Committee chair) co-sponsored a non-binding resolution that said it was “not in the national interest of the United States to deepen its military involvement in Iraq.”^[46]

·                 House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democrats in her chamber would back a non-binding resolution “declaring that President Bush’s decision to send additional troops to Iraq is ‘not in the national interest of the United States.'”

·                 After three days of debate, on February 16, 2007, the House of Representatives passed House Concurrent Resolution (HCR) 63 on a vote of 246 to 182.^[48]

Political System and Economy

·                 The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported on September 2, 2007, that the Iraqi government had only met three of the eighteen benchmarks created by the US Congress in June 2006.^[83]

Interpretation of Results

·                 Whether the surge led to the improvement in Iraqi security, or other factors caused it, is disputed by some. Council of Foreign Relations fellow Noah Feldman has remarked that:

Support

·                 Both critics of the surge and independent news services have stated that the conventional wisdom in the United States media is that the surge ‘worked’.^{[98][99][100][101]} Many Democratic political leaders have acknowledged the same.^[9]

 Opposition

·                 Journalist Patrick Cockburn has stated that the reduction in violence was a direct result of ethnic cleansing by the Shia-led Iraqi government and Shia militias against Sunnis.^[107]

·                 On April 20, 2007, four months after the surge went into effect, Senator Harry Reid made a statement on the floor of the US Senate that the US had already lost the war in Iraq and that the surge would accomplish nothing, stating “I believe myself that the secretary of state, secretary of defense and – you have to make your own decisions as to what the president knows – (know)

·                 this war is lost and the surge is not accomplishing anything as indicated by the extreme violence in Iraq yesterday.”^[112]

Public Opinion

·                 An early February 2008 Gallup Poll found that 43% of Americans thought the troop increase was “making the situation there better”.^[113]

·                 A CNN poll conducted during the same period found that 52% thought that US forces were “making progress in improving conditions in Iraq and bringing an end to the violence in that country” while 45% disagree.^[114]

·                 A poll released by the Pew Research Center on the same day found that 48% of those polled believed the war to be going well, up from 30% a year earlier,

·                 A majority still believed the war to be a wrong decision in the first place.^[115]

·                 A commentary on the poll by National Public Radio called some of its results a “sign that the troop surge is being seen as successful.”^[116]

·                 Nonetheless, an Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted in June 2008 found that 68% of Americans were opposed to the war in Iraq and that 64% of Americans wanted to see the next President remove most troops from Iraq within a few months of taking office.^[117]

·                 A summer 2008 CBS News poll found that 46% thought it improved the situation in Iraq while 11% thought it made it worse and 32% thought it had no impact.^[114]

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